Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220728 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 18.7 22.2 18.0 11.1 11.9 14.4 16.5 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 97.4 74.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 117.0 140.0 140.0 123.0 91.0 115.0 94.0 F F VF VF F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 74.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 70.0 N F N F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -8.0 -13.0 -12.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 F F VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 3.2% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 14.9% 29.0% 22.0% 30kt / 24h 6.2% 14.9% 10.5% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 14.9% 9.6% 40kt / 24h 4.3% 14.9% 9.6% 45kt / 36h 17.6% 29.9% 23.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 11.4% 5.7% 55kt / 48h 25.7% 28.3% 27.0% 70kt / 48h 7.4% 13.6% 10.5% 65kt / 72h 23.4% 21.5% 22.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 EP072022 220728 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 18.7 22.2 18.0 11.1 11.9 14.4 16.5 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 74.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 70.0 N U N U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -8.0 -13.0 -12.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 U U VU U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%