Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.1  18.4  13.6  13.2  14.9  12.8  15.4  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  19.0  17.0  12.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.1  86.6  60.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 113.0 131.0 123.0  83.0  75.0  88.0 101.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0  -8.0  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        8.5%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       36.9%       52.6%       44.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       39.1%       28.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       39.1%       25.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.2%       38.9%       25.5%
 45kt / 36h       32.2%       50.2%       41.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.6%       14.3%
 55kt / 48h       31.7%       40.1%       35.9%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%       23.3%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.4%       24.7%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP072022 220728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.1  18.4  13.6  13.2  14.9  12.8  15.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0  -8.0  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%