Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220729 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 17.4 15.1 13.6 18.4 17.9 17.8 16.3 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 20.0 17.0 16.0 11.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 93.6 72.7 46.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 158.0 146.0 111.0 95.0 89.0 118.0 72.0 59.0 VF VF F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 76.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 -6.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 F F F F F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.8% 15.8% 17.3% 25kt / 24h 57.9% 67.8% 62.8% 30kt / 24h 36.2% 59.0% 47.6% 35kt / 24h 33.3% 59.0% 46.1% 40kt / 24h 33.3% 58.6% 45.9% 45kt / 36h 41.2% 56.3% 48.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 35.0% 17.5% 55kt / 48h 32.8% 39.3% 36.0% 70kt / 48h 10.0% 24.3% 17.1% 65kt / 72h 9.0% 17.3% 13.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 EP072022 220729 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 17.4 15.1 13.6 18.4 17.9 17.8 16.3 N N U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 76.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 -6.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 U U U U U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%