Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220729 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 14.0 10.8 14.8 17.2 17.1 13.1 9.9 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3 85.5 60.0 40.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 119.0 120.0 103.0 105.0 106.0 119.0 74.0 70.0 F F F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 75.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 74.0 70.0 70.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -8.0 -2.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F F N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.2% 11.0% 11.1% 25kt / 24h 46.0% 59.0% 52.5% 30kt / 24h 24.8% 48.9% 36.9% 35kt / 24h 19.0% 48.9% 34.0% 40kt / 24h 19.0% 48.5% 33.8% 45kt / 36h 30.2% 42.9% 36.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.6% 11.3% 55kt / 48h 24.2% 29.2% 26.7% 70kt / 48h 7.6% 14.8% 11.2% 65kt / 72h 11.7% 13.1% 12.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 EP072022 220729 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 14.0 10.8 14.8 17.2 17.1 13.1 9.9 N U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 75.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 74.0 70.0 70.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -8.0 -2.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%