Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2   9.3  11.9  14.6  18.7  12.7  10.8  12.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  12.0  11.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  91.5  72.7  47.9  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 131.0  86.0  98.0 106.0 139.0  70.0  21.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%       10.5%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.8%       54.0%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.9%       44.3%       31.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.3%       44.3%       27.8%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       43.7%       26.8%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       33.9%       29.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       23.5%       21.3%       22.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        9.7%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        7.7%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 EP072022 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2   9.3  11.9  14.6  18.7  12.7  10.8  12.8  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%