Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.1  11.0  14.7  15.3  14.4  14.8   9.6  19.9 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 102.0  95.1  78.5  55.0  34.8  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   144.0 104.0 125.0 107.0  86.0  75.0  67.0  22.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.5%       25.1%       21.3%
 25kt / 24h       56.5%       69.8%       63.1%
 30kt / 24h       34.8%       66.0%       50.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       66.0%       45.6%
 40kt / 24h       22.2%       64.6%       43.4%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       49.2%       41.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.3%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       23.5%       23.0%       23.3%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%       13.9%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP072022 220729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.1  11.0  14.7  15.3  14.4  14.8   9.6  19.9 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%