Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  11.4  13.2  13.9  16.4  14.2  13.4  16.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  94.3  89.6  80.7  61.2  36.7  19.7   6.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  59.0  67.0  87.0 127.0  92.0  48.0  17.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.9%       65.0%       69.5%
 25kt / 24h       82.3%       90.9%       86.6%
 30kt / 24h       79.6%       90.9%       85.2%
 35kt / 24h       79.6%       90.9%       85.2%
 40kt / 24h       70.0%       89.6%       79.8%
 45kt / 36h       55.2%       72.1%       63.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       60.9%       30.5%
 55kt / 48h       32.1%       29.5%       30.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP072022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  11.4  13.2  13.9  16.4  14.2  13.4  16.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%