Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.5  15.0  15.7  14.7  10.7  18.6  11.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  79.6  72.9  62.4  41.1  19.3   3.3  -5.3  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  74.0  60.0  71.0  74.0  54.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.4%       58.7%       68.1%
 25kt / 24h       71.1%       80.0%       75.5%
 30kt / 24h       68.7%       80.0%       74.3%
 35kt / 24h       68.7%       80.0%       74.3%
 40kt / 24h       68.1%       78.3%       73.2%
 45kt / 36h       48.7%       53.3%       51.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       40.0%       20.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP072022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.5  15.0  15.7  14.7  10.7  18.6  11.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%