Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.6  17.5  18.5  17.4  16.8  16.0  15.3  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.1  68.6  60.5  49.4  25.4   6.8  -4.6  -9.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  89.0  66.0  63.0  99.0  -9.0 -26.0 -11.0  N  F  N  N  F  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.3%       30.8%       38.6%
 25kt / 24h       39.1%       44.5%       41.8%
 30kt / 24h       28.6%       43.9%       36.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.2%       43.9%       35.0%
 40kt / 24h       26.2%       41.3%       33.7%
 45kt / 36h       18.7%       19.4%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP072022 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.6  17.5  18.5  17.4  16.8  16.0  15.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%