Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  11.8  16.2  18.3  14.1  17.8  14.4  20.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  58.5  49.4  38.0  18.2   2.4  -7.3 -11.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  51.0  39.0  48.0  72.0 -28.0  -7.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%       10.6%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       15.8%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%       13.0%       10.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       13.0%        9.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       11.9%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 EP072022 220730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.