Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  15.7  20.3  20.4  17.7  16.6  16.5  17.7  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.5  47.7  35.0  22.9   6.8  -5.3 -11.0 -12.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  44.0  50.0  65.0 -13.0  -3.0 -20.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  -2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        7.2%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        7.3%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        5.0%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        5.0%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.44

 EP072022 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.