Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220731 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 19.4 17.7 15.6 21.5 15.1 18.7 13.3 F N F F N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.0 32.2 21.7 13.8 -0.8 -9.8 -12.7 -14.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 59.0 55.0 43.0 -27.0 12.0 -24.0 -34.0 N N N N VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 70.0 68.0 61.0 55.0 53.0 48.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.3% 3.8% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 1.9% 3.9% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.64 EP072022 220731 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.