Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.7  15.6  18.0  20.7  16.8  17.3  19.1  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  21.7  12.7   5.0  -7.3 -12.2 -14.3 -15.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  66.0  56.0  11.0  15.0 -32.0  12.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0  -3.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        1.8%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.86

 EP072022 220731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.