Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  16.7  17.7  22.4  16.8  18.8  15.1  21.8  N  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.7  22.7  15.0   8.4  -0.4  -3.3  -4.9  -6.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  56.0  11.0 -54.0   6.0   6.0 -33.0   0.0  N  N  U VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  48.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   6.0  -4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.02

 EP072022 220731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.