Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.6  22.3  20.3  18.4  17.8  18.1  18.6  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.7  15.0   7.6   2.7  -2.2  -4.3  -5.9  -7.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0   4.0 -12.0   0.0 -32.0  -4.0  15.0  37.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  -3.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.20

 EP072022 220801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.