Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  20.7  19.5  16.5  18.2  14.3  21.9  22.1  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.1  17.6  12.1   9.6   6.7   5.1   3.7   0.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   0.0   0.0   7.0 -17.0 -41.0  34.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  48.0  47.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   5.0  -1.0   5.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.38

 EP072022 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.