Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.5  16.4  19.3  20.1  22.7  22.1  25.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.8  19.7  15.2  12.8  10.7   8.2   5.9   3.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   8.0   6.0 -21.0  -9.0  10.0  36.0 -25.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -12.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.02

 EP072022 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.