Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220801 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 14.7 17.9 19.9 17.7 22.2 21.1 30.2 F F F N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.9 22.1 19.0 17.8 15.7 12.7 10.1 7.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 -1.0 2.0 -55.0 -46.0 15.0 -18.0 -3.0 U U U VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 54.0 49.0 44.0 46.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 N N N F N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.68 EP072022 220801 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.