Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220802 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 19.1 21.6 22.3 22.3 20.5 22.6 27.4 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.4 30.2 27.8 26.7 24.6 21.8 19.7 17.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 8.0 -40.0 -38.0 -15.0 26.0 -30.0 60.0 U U VU VU U U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 59.0 59.0 55.0 48.0 46.0 41.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.0 -13.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.32 EP072022 220802 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.