Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.5  23.1  20.0  25.4  19.4  23.0  34.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.6  27.8  26.7  26.2  23.2  20.9  18.5  15.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0 -33.0 -72.0 -34.0  -1.0   9.0   1.0  20.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  43.0  42.0  40.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0 -14.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.94

 EP072022 220802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.