Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220802 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 125.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 23.0 20.2 24.4 18.4 22.1 26.4 26.4 N N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.8 31.7 31.2 29.6 27.2 24.7 21.6 21.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -30.0 -83.0 -38.0 -12.0 11.0 -9.0 69.0 69.0 VU VU VU U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 56.0 55.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -12.0 -17.0 -17.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.66 EP072022 220802 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 125.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.