Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220802 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 19.1 21.6 23.4 22.1 27.0 36.8 36.8 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.7 31.2 29.6 28.2 25.9 23.1 20.3 20.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -84.0 -48.0 -6.0 39.0 16.0 -4.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 57.0 50.0 43.0 44.0 41.0 41.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -15.0 -13.0 -13.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.42 EP072022 220802 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.