Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220727 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 20.0 20.7 22.1 20.4 27.1 30.8 40.7 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 23.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.6 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 42.0 70.0 67.0 56.0 93.0 103.0 144.0 U N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 62.0 67.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 11.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 2.5% 1.8% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 22.7% 14.2% 30kt / 24h 2.2% 10.5% 6.3% 35kt / 24h 1.6% 10.0% 5.8% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 10.0% 5.8% 45kt / 36h 4.5% 31.4% 18.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.7% 6.9% 55kt / 48h 7.7% 15.5% 11.6% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 10.3% 6.4% 65kt / 72h 13.3% 16.2% 14.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 EP082022 220727 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 20.0 20.7 22.1 20.4 27.1 30.8 40.7 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 62.0 67.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 11.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%