Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.6  22.9  23.4  18.8  17.6  21.4  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  60.0  65.0  61.0  77.0 131.0 126.0 118.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        4.4%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       28.2%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       13.9%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       13.9%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       13.9%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       38.3%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.1%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%       22.8%       17.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%       16.3%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%       29.0%       26.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 EP082022 220727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.6  22.9  23.4  18.8  17.6  21.4  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%