Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.9  22.4  19.6  20.0  26.0  29.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  16.0  14.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 124.3 124.3 124.3 117.3 117.3 115.1 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  59.0  49.0  67.0  91.0 101.0 101.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        6.3%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.6%       35.3%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       19.8%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.4%       19.8%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.4%       19.8%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       39.1%       26.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.3%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       16.7%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%       11.2%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%       11.6%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP082022 220728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.9  22.4  19.6  20.0  26.0  29.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%