Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  22.2  22.3  21.5  23.7  28.3  24.8  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  18.0  17.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  70.0  97.0  77.0  94.0  81.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        6.5%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       34.1%       25.3%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       19.0%       17.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.4%       19.0%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h       16.4%       19.0%       17.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.7%       31.0%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       14.5%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        6.7%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        8.9%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP082022 220728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  22.2  22.3  21.5  23.7  28.3  24.8  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%