Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  22.5  21.4  22.7  26.4  27.6  29.4  39.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 117.0 119.3 117.0 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  66.0  36.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  68.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        4.2%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       26.6%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       13.7%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.9%       13.7%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%       13.7%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       20.2%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        9.9%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        5.2%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP082022 220728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  22.5  21.4  22.7  26.4  27.6  29.4  39.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  68.0  71.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%