Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.0  21.9  23.5  27.0  27.6  29.5  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 112.3 114.6 114.6 114.6 114.6 112.3 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  53.0  49.0  85.0  65.0  29.0  30.0 114.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       18.3%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        9.3%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        9.2%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        8.9%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       14.1%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        6.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        3.6%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 EP082022 220728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.0  21.9  23.5  27.0  27.6  29.5  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%