Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  22.9  24.7  27.9  29.7  30.0  30.8  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 105.7 107.9 107.9 112.3 114.6 107.9  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  49.0  83.0  97.0  79.0  17.0  54.0  83.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        8.2%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        6.4%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP082022 220729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  22.9  24.7  27.9  29.7  30.0  30.8  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%