Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  25.3  27.7  26.9  28.8  30.2  34.5  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 110.1 112.3 114.6 114.6 105.7  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  39.0 101.0  86.0  55.0  21.0 -13.0  94.0  U  N  F  F  N  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  62.0  67.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.9%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        5.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP082022 220729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  25.3  27.7  26.9  28.8  30.2  34.5  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  62.0  67.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%