Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  28.8  26.3  26.9  31.0  25.4  32.7  33.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  98.6 100.7 105.1 105.1 105.1 100.7  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  86.0  99.0  66.0  52.0   9.0  53.0  77.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  62.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.7%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        8.9%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        3.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        3.6%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        6.4%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP082022 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  28.8  26.3  26.9  31.0  25.4  32.7  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  62.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%