Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  25.7  27.0  27.4  27.4  26.4  35.3  34.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 110.1 110.1 112.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  77.0  60.0  66.0  55.0 -35.0  82.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.6%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP082022 220729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  25.7  27.0  27.4  27.4  26.4  35.3  34.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  56.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%