Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.7  26.5  27.4  23.1  30.8  32.1  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 110.1 110.1 112.3 114.6 112.3 105.7 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  80.0  71.0  67.0  -4.0 -10.0  56.0  47.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  41.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.7%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP082022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.7  26.5  27.4  23.1  30.8  32.1  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  41.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  56.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%