Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.9  28.1  24.7  24.0  29.3  30.7  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 110.1 112.3 114.6 110.1 105.7 103.6  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  51.0  66.0  45.0 -21.0 -12.0  53.0  37.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.1%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.0%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP082022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.9  28.1  24.7  24.0  29.3  30.7  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  55.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%