Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  27.7  25.7  23.6  29.0  28.5  27.8  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 112.3 112.3 110.1 107.9 105.7 101.5  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  76.0  45.0   7.0  -3.0  29.0  34.0  83.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        4.7%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP082022 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  27.7  25.7  23.6  29.0  28.5  27.8  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%