Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  22.1  23.2  29.3  28.6  28.0  22.4  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 110.1 107.9 107.9 103.6 101.5  97.4  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  27.0 -15.0   2.0  -6.0  34.0  99.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  48.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP082022 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  22.1  23.2  29.3  28.6  28.0  22.4  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  48.0 VF VF VF  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%