Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  24.4  30.4  30.5  27.7  27.1  20.9  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 110.7 110.7 108.6 106.5 104.4  96.6  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  24.0  18.0  27.0  38.0  64.0  44.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  47.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.9%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP082022 220731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  24.4  30.4  30.5  27.7  27.1  20.9  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  47.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%