Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  31.2  29.9  27.5  28.5  24.3  21.5  19.2  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 117.9 115.7 113.6 111.5 105.5  91.0  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   4.0   9.0  26.0  12.0  67.0  21.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  45.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP082022 220731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  31.2  29.9  27.5  28.5  24.3  21.5  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  45.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%