Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  25.7  27.1  25.2  23.3  17.7  22.2  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 118.6 118.6 116.5 108.5  97.7  91.1  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  13.0  56.0  63.0  58.0  -3.0  -4.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.6%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP082022 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  25.7  27.1  25.2  23.3  17.7  22.2  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%