Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  25.2  25.2  25.7  24.7  21.2  20.3  14.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 118.6 116.5 114.4 108.5 101.2  94.3  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  37.0  63.0  73.0  47.0  24.0  13.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.7%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 EP082022 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  25.2  25.2  25.7  24.7  21.2  20.3  14.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%