Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.6  23.8  24.0  17.9  20.5  14.8  13.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 114.4 112.4 103.0  94.3  88.0  82.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  32.0  82.0  60.0  36.0  31.0  38.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  46.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.3%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP082022 220801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.6  23.8  24.0  17.9  20.5  14.8  13.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  46.0  38.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%