Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220802 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 131.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 26.8 24.7 22.8 21.4 18.7 14.5 15.3 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.4 112.4 110.5 108.5 99.4 91.1 86.5 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 54.0 86.0 95.0 37.0 24.0 31.0 28.0 N N F F N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 55.0 58.0 56.0 52.0 46.0 41.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.8% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.9% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 EP082022 220802 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 131.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.