Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220802 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 25.8 22.7 22.1 19.8 15.7 11.9 12.9 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 112.4 112.4 108.5 104.8 94.3 88.0 83.6 80.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 77.0 120.0 57.0 9.0 0.0 11.0 -13.0 N N F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 54.0 51.0 45.0 40.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.5% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.1% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP082022 220802 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.