Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  21.6  20.9  21.2  19.0  14.4  11.9  12.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 106.6 103.0  94.3  86.5  85.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  77.0  84.0  44.0  -5.0  29.0 -25.0 -23.0  F  N  N  N  U  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  45.0  41.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        1.7%        1.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 EP082022 220802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.