Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220802 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 20.9 20.0 19.9 16.0 12.5 13.2 13.2 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.5 106.6 103.0 97.7 91.1 85.0 80.8 80.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 63.0 42.0 4.0 17.0 -5.0 -20.0 -20.0 N N N U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 51.0 43.0 43.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.7% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 5.1% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 2.1% 1.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP082022 220802 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.