Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220803 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.0 18.3 17.2 17.4 17.5 18.3 16.4 16.4 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.0 97.7 92.7 89.6 82.2 75.4 72.9 72.9 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 21.0 -6.0 -3.0 23.0 -26.0 -37.0 -37.0 N U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 58.0 58.0 53.0 45.0 39.0 39.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 EP082022 220803 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.