Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220803 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 17.2 17.6 15.3 16.2 18.4 18.1 18.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.4 94.3 89.6 85.0 79.4 72.9 70.5 70.5 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 1.0 -11.0 20.0 -9.0 -25.0 -28.0 -28.0 N U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 58.0 57.0 51.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.3% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 EP082022 220803 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.