Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082022 220803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.0  17.9  18.7  19.4  17.4  15.2  15.2  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  88.0  85.0  80.8  75.4  71.7  71.7  71.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   0.0   4.0  11.0 -56.0 -19.0 -12.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  46.0  40.0  33.0  33.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   7.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 EP082022 220803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.