Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082022 220803 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 18.2 18.8 19.3 17.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 N F N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.5 87.2 83.0 80.4 74.3 72.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -8.0 -21.0 -43.0 -24.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 41.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.60 EP082022 220803 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.