Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  20.4  18.6  14.5  19.8  15.8  21.3  19.1  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  14.0  15.0  16.0  10.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 132.0 127.3 112.4  96.0  92.7  83.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  59.0  32.0  32.0  48.0  10.0  51.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       20.8%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        9.6%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        8.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.9%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       24.5%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        7.3%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        6.9%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        8.5%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 EP092022 220806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  20.4  18.6  14.5  19.8  15.8  21.3  19.1  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%